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Abortion, Trump boosts medium-term prospects for Democrats

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Democrats even won with Republicans in November’s midterm elections, fueled by six in 10 voters who disapprove of the decision to overthrow Roe v. Wade, with President Joe Biden’s approval score improving to its highest point since October. and by the favor of Donald Trump rating has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.

Still, Republicans retain key gains that could catapult them into taking control of Congress and Governor mansions across the country, including 63% of voters who believe their incomes lag behind the cost of living, as well as 58 % who disapprove of Biden’s treatment of the economy.

These are the results of a new national NBC News Pollfinding that the parties are tied by congressional preference among registered voters, 46%-46%, with the Democrats narrowly chasing Republicans in election interest.

But perhaps what is most striking about the research is the two vastly different campaigns the parties are waging, with the Republican Party always taking big advantages on economics, crime and border security, versus the Democrats’ record on abortion and double-digit lead. on healthcare.

“We often think about golf elections,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

“But this year we can instead think of a ‘wavy’ election where unprecedentedly strong counter-currents push voters in different directions, with an end result that may not be what we expected.”

McInturff, the GOP pollster, agrees.

“There’s a campaign about the economy, cost of living, crime and border security, and the Republicans are winning this campaign,” he said.

“But there’s a second campaign on abortion, democracy and climate change, and the Democrats win that campaign.”

In the poll, 46% of registered voters say they prefer Republicans to control Congress as the outcome of the November election, versus an equal 46% who want Democrats in charge.

That’s essentially unchanged from last month’s NBC News poll, which led Republicans by 2 points, 47%-45%, well within that poll’s margin of error.

In this new poll, Democrats enjoy advantages among black voters (77%-8%), ages 18-34 (57%-33%), whites with college degrees (58%-38%), women (53% -40) %) and Latinos (46%-42%).

Republicans, on the other hand, have the lead among men (53%-39%), whites (54%-41%), independents (43%-37%) and whites with no college degree (64%-31%).

When it comes to excitement about the upcoming midterm elections, 69% of Republican voters show a high level of interest in the election — registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale — versus 66% of the voters. Democrats who do.

That’s essentially unchanged from August, when 68% of Republicans and 66% of Democrats showed strong interest. But earlier in the year, Republicans had a double-digit advantage over enthusiasm.

Biden’s approval rises to 45%

The NBC News poll also finds that 45% of registered voters approve of President Biden’s general job (3 points more than last month), versus 52% who disapprove (3 points less).

It is Biden’s highest rating in the poll since October last year.

The improvement for Biden has come primarily from core segments of the Democratic base, including women (who passed from 47% to 52% in this survey in August), Latinos (from 40% to 48%) and voters ages 18-34 (from 36% to 48%).

Still, Biden is inundated with other key demographics such as independents (only 36% approve of his job), suburban voters (43%) and seniors (47%).

“45% [approval] has always traditionally been a flashing warning sign for a sitting U.S. president,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster.

On these issues, 42% of all voters approve of the president’s handling of foreign policy, 40% approve of his handling of the economy, 36% approve of his handling of border security and immigration, and 30% approve his way of dealing with the cost well of living.

When asked whether Biden’s policies helped or harmed economic conditions, 47% of voters say they hurt, 23% say they helped and 28% say they didn’t make much of a difference.

The Trump Factor

While Biden’s approval rating has risen, Donald Trump’s favor has fallen to one of the lowest levels of his post-presidency.

According to the poll, 34% have a positive image of the ex-president, compared to 54% who have a negative image (-20).

Trump’s net score is slightly lower than in August (36% positive, 54% negative) and May (36% positive, 51% negative), and it’s its lowest since April 2021 (32% positive, 55% negative).

By comparison, Biden’s favorable score in the new NBC News poll is 42% positive, 47% (-5).

And when asked whether the various investigations into alleged wrongdoing by Trump should continue or end, 56% of all voters say they should continue — including 92% of Democrats, 56% of Independents, but only 19% of Republicans who believe that.

In contrast, 41% say the studies should stop.

The battle between Democrat and GOP

As in August, respondents in this latest NBC News poll say the top issues facing the country are “threats to democracy” (20% of voters chose that as the No. 1 issue), the cost of living ( 18%), jobs and economy (16%) and immigration and the situation at the border (12%).

By testing which party handles 12 different midterm issues better, Republicans have a 19-point advantage over Democrats in handling the economy (an all-time highest GOP in the poll), a 23-point lead over the Democrats. dealing with crime (another all-time high) and a 36-point advantage in dealing with border security (another all-time record).

Democrats, meanwhile, have their biggest lead on protecting democracy (7 points ahead of Republicans), dealing with education (11 points), health care (20 points) and dealing with abortion (22 points – a record high for them in the survey).

And on abortion, 61% of voters say they disapprove of the US Supreme Court’s June decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, compared to 37% who approve.

That’s in line with last month’s poll, when 58% disapproved and 38% approved.

The NBC News Poll was conducted Sept. 9-13 from 1,000 registered voters — including 750 respondents reached by cell phone — and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

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