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Online festival sales likely to be 28% above pre-Covid levels at $11.8 billion: report

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  • Total online retail value will grow 30% to $68 billion by 2022, a report predicts Red Seer Strategy Consultants.
  • Urban Indians in North and Central India are more enthusiastic about shopping around Diwali than those in south and eastern India, says a youGov questionnaire.
  • Shoppers from Tier 2+ cities are expected to increase festive sales.

The upcoming festive season in India is expected to see buoyant sales as consumers give in to the post-pandemic impulse buying and return vengefully to the online markets. An increase in disposable income will also boost the general mood to spend, experts think.

A report from Bangalore-based Red Seer Strategy Consultants estimates that online sales in the holiday season will reach $11.8 billion as of September 24, a jump of 28% from pre-pandemic levels of 2018. In fact, in the former. week of the holiday season itself, sales are expected to reach $5.9 billion.

Ecommerce companies listed their major online sales as of October, including: Amazon Great Indian festival sale and Flipkart Big Billion Daysto take advantage of the festival shopping.

“Compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2018, the report predicts a 3x growth in online festive sales GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) this year,” said Red Seer Consultants.

The massive growth in celebratory sales will grow total online retail GMV, which reached $52 billion in 2021, by 30%, to reach $68 billion by 2022, according to the report.

After the holiday sale, the end-of-season sales that usually take place in July or December provide the second best shopping opportunity, followed by New Year’s Eve and traditional New Year’s celebrations (such as Pongal, Gudi Padwa), Christmas and Eid/Ramadan.

This time, festive sales are expected to be boosted by post-pandemic retaliation and impulse buying.

“More than a third (35%) agreed with the statement – ​​I’m looking forward to Diwali this year as the rest of the year has been rather dull due to Covid-19,” according to the YouGov Festival Survey
Report 2022.

More than 27% of YouGov respondents cited “an increase in gross household income over the past year” as another reason for shopping.

Good luck in rural and Tier2+ cities

Interestingly, rural India is more excited about the approaching festivities, but average online spending will drop, Red Seer Consultants said.

About 48% shop more during the holiday season than during the rest of the year. Majority of these shoppers are from rural India, reveals Axis My India September CSI survey 2022.

There has been an increase in shoppers from Tier 2+ cities (from 42% in 2018 to 60% in 2021) who tend to shop in lower average retail price categories such as fashion, home and personal care products, Red Seer reported.

“We predict a 4x growth in the number of online shoppers from 2018. This growth is due to accelerated digital adoption and increasing penetration in Tier 2+ cities. We expect this expanded customer base will also be reflected in higher sales during the festive sale period,” said Sanjay Kothari, associate partner, Redseer Strategy Consultants.

Urban Indians in Noord more enthusiastic about festival shopping

Urban Indians in northern and central India are more enthusiastic about shopping around Diwali, followed by residents of western India. Enthusiasm for the festival in South and East India is relatively lower, YouGov reveals.

Navratri/Durga Pooja is the most anticipated shopping event in East and North East India compared to other regions.

“This is primarily due to the increasing awareness of the festive sale among shoppers, the growing reach, targeted selection and expansion of products within the affordability range for shoppers in different city types,” added Kothari.

The launch of new e-commerce models such as live/video commerce is expected to further fuel the growth of online shoppers during festivities, estimates Red Seer Consultants.

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