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Power Generation Rises Marginally in July-Aug Due to Heavy Rain: Emkay Global

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Electricity production in the first two months of the second quarter of the current fiscal year increased marginally by 1.5 percent year-on-year due to heavy rainfall in these months, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report.



This was well below the 16 percent growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, impacting a low base due to Covid-19.

The August generation was less than 1 percent. On a 3-year CAGR basis, growth for the two months was 3.5-5 percent.

“A closer look at the electricity demand pattern suggests heavy rainfall in July-August 2022 (30 percent more) YoY) could be the main reason for the same. Both housing and agricultural demand have a high correlation with weather conditions. As the rainy season winds down, we believe electricity demand growth will normalize to the medium-term figure of ~5 percent,” the report said.

Hydropower growth was strong at 10 percent, while Thermal and RE growth remained flat to moderate at 2 percent.

While coal production for July and August reported annual growth of 11.4 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively. Coal transport is up 8.5 percent/5.4 percent year-on-year in the two months, although growth slowed somewhat.

According to the report, the total coal supply during these two months was ~7 percent, the energy sector received ~14 percent more coal in August 2023 than in August 2022 – YTD numbers are at 20 percent.

This compares well with last year when India experienced a good increase in demand during Sep-Oct and many thermal units were out of stock.

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