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Rupee expects to trade around $79/$ on FII inflows, pushing crude prices down: BoB

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The Indian rupee expected to trade in the range of 79.25-79.75 per US dollar in the coming days due to easing Crude oil prices and continued influx of foreign investors, Bank of Baroda said in a research report.



“The global oil price has fallen below $100 which is good news as it will automatically lower the trade deficit in addition to potential inflationary pressures. Going forward, we can expect the rupee to trade in the Rs 79.25-79, 75/$ range,” the report said.

The report also said the war in Ukraine, while largely unresolved, has likely played the dark side with the global economy adjusting to supply dynamics. The shock was absorbed over a six-month period, it said.

“Taiwan was startled but now appears to be behind us. The focus will be on what global central banks are doing in the coming months and while the direction is clear and a slowdown is imminent, the approach will provide further clues to the currency markets” , the report said.

The Indian rupee has remained volatile for the past two months, sometimes reaching record lows, but has recovered since early this month, thanks to foreign investors returning to the stock market after nearly nine months.

“The Indian story was largely driven by” FPI movements, which turned positive for equity on all days, while they turned positive for debt during this period. Therefore, net inflows were positive, offsetting the trade deficit impacted by imports growing faster than exports,” the report said.

Experts believe that foreign investors have returned to the Indian markets as the country is a preferred destination as it has the best growth prospects of the major economies of the world. FPIs have made net buyers in cars, capital goods, FMCGand telecommunications.

The dollar had come close to the parity level and the question was whether this level would be broken. Intuitive the fed Hardening interest rates to slow the economy automatically weakens the dollar’s strength and has given other currencies a helping hand, the report added.


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